Tim Dettmers Argues AGI Will Not Happen Dettmers claims GPU performance-per-cost peaked around 2018. Post-2018 gains from one-off architectural tricks now exhausted and facing diminishing returns. Transformers are near physically optimal for local computation versus global attention. Scaling laws demand exponential resources for linear gains. Only 1–2 years of viable scaling left before costs outpace ...

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Link :
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/12/updates-on-the-agi-debate-humanoid-bots-and-karpathy-insight.html